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As the season starts to wind down in England, the battle for European spots heats up. All the focus lately has been on who will claim that 4th and final Champions League spot. Liverpool are always the favorites for European play but if their form doesn’t pick up – there are a host of other teams set to swoop in. Of course, someone has to miss out so I’ve decided to take a statistical look at who COULD finish in that 4th position. Not who will – but who could.

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Lets begin with some historical data. Over the past four seasons Arsenal, Liverpool & Everton have claimed 4th spot (Arsenal the past two seasons). Last season the Gunners finished with 68pts, the season before that they had 67pts. In 2004/2005, Everton secured a Champions League spot (very briefly) on 61pts. Prior to that it was Liverpool in 2003/2004 finishing on 60pts. Averaging it out, over the past four seasons the point total needed to secure the final spot is 64pts.

Now lets look at the run out for the final ten games for each team from places 4th through 10th – all of whom have a shot at 4th spot. Everton were sitting 4th heading into the current round on 44pts and are averaging 1.76pts per game. If we use that number, the Toffees should be on about 49pts with ten games left (1.76 X 28 games). Over the past four years they’ve averaged 11.5pts over that last ten games giving them a total of 61pts (11.5 + 49) at the close. If you take their average (1.76 X 38) you get 67pts – so they are looking at a potential 6pts (61pts – 67pts = -6) difference between the pace of this season and their historical average over the past four years.

In their final ten games, Everton play 4th spot rivals West Ham, Liverpool & Aston Villa – with two of those at home. They also play the bottom five teams – but they also play Arsenal & Chelsea. Those two games could be the difference between 4th spot and 5th spot.

Liverpool also face three 4th place rival sides down the stretch – Everton, Blackburn & Manchester City. The thing helping Liverpool most though is the fact they play each of those games at Anfield. Granted, their home form hasn’t been that great this season but you’d have to think that gives them a slight edge in each of those games. From 24-rounds of play, Liverpool are at 43pts (1.79 average) and they have the game at hand on everyone they are fighting with. They should have about 50pts with ten to go and when you factor in their four year average in those last ten games, another 18.75pts puts them in front in that 4th place race (69pts). In fact, they are 1pt better than the average points predicts (1.79 X 38 = 68). Having said that, the Reds form as of late has been far from previous seasons and with their propensity to draw, one has to think that last stretch could yield as little as 10-11pts. Especially with two away games at Manchester United and Arsenal. But like Everton, they also play the bottom five teams which SHOULD yield 12-15pts.

Aston Villa are 6th heading into the weekend but Martin O’Neill’s team are beginning to show signs of a surge. They face Portsmouth, Everton and West Ham in the last ten games – all away – and that could be the difference for them (4-6-2 upto now on road). They play 6 of their last ten against bottom-half sides including games against the bottom two.

Over the past four seasons, Villa have averaged 13.25pts in their last ten games. When you take their average so far (1.64pts/game), they should be at 46pts (or better) with ten to go. Factor in that 13.25 and they stand to finish at 60pts. That’s two worse than their average indicates (1.64 X38 = 62). That puts them out of 4th. They DO have an easier schedule than the two teams currently above them and only face on top-3 side in Manchester United.
Next up is Manchester City and this one could be the real wild card. Sven Goran Eriksson’s side started brilliantly, fell off for a bit and now go to Old Trafford and take the champions for three on a day when they had no business winning (a great performance though on an emotional day!). City also face just one of the top three teams in their last ten (Chelsea) and like Villa, have six bottom half teams to look forward to – including games against two of the current last three. Their 41pt total gives them an average haul of 1.64pts per game so far and averaged out over the 38-matches – they should finish with about 62pts. With ten to go, they should be sitting at about 46pts. Over the past four seasons, City have managed a meagre 11pts in that last ten and that point-per-game ending has them 5pts in arrears of the average (46 + 11 = 57pts). Here’s where we’ll see if the signings during the transfer window pay dividends – especially Benjani.

In terms of outsiders looking in – we have Blackburn in 8th spot, Portsmouth in 9th and West Ham in 10th.

Rovers will play the bottom five in half of their last ten but face tough trips to West Ham, Liverpool and Portsmouth. They could also be in tough versus Manchester United at home. After 28 games they should be hovering around 44pts (1.56pts/game X 28). When you add their average ten game finish (16.25pts) – they end on 60pts. That’s one point better than the 59 that comes out in the average over 38-games (1.56 X 38). I would be surprised if they do much better than that – the away form certainly has to improve!

Portsmouth are the team I like the most to surge up and grab 4th spot. Some astute signings by Harry Redknapp means this team should blow their average away – especially considering they have 6 of their last ten games at home and are the ONLY team in the fight that DON’T play the top four. They have 5-games versus bottom half teams which should yield a good bounty but they also face four of the teams they are battling with – Villa and Rovers at home, West Ham and City away. Any slips could be costly at this point – and the numbers back that up. Pompey are averaging 1.52pts/gm and over 38 games that will give them 58pts. Their average points haul over the last ten is 15.75pts. When they hit 10-games to go they should be at 43pts (1.52 X 28) and when you add that average – they end on 58pts. That would be out of Europe. But given their schedule and the additions – I think you’ll be able to add at least another 6-9pts to that putting them right in the thick of it.

Lastly is Hammers and they have home games against Rovers, Portsmouth & Villa along with away trips to Everton and Manchester United. Given the fact they were in the League Championship two fo the last four seasons, I’ve done some funky math with their average finish. In their past two Prem seasons, they’ve finished strongest of the lot picking up 18.5pts. Over their last two Championship seasons they averaged 18pts – but I’ve multiplied the two totals by 0.65 to give us 14pts and 9pts. So, when you do the new math there (24+13+14+9=60 divided by four = 15pts) West Ham should end at about 55pts – right on their 1.44pts per game average. Don’t ask me why I used a factor of 0.65 – it just seemed like a good number.

So – to conclude – here’s how it could end statistically speaking (Total w/10g left + 4yr average):
4) Liverpool 69pts
5) Everton 61pts
6) Aston Villa 60pts
7) Blackburn 60pts
8 ) Portsmouth 59pts
9) Manchester City 57pts
10) West Ham 55pts

Here’s how it could end based on pts per game average X 38 games:
4) Liverpool 68pts
5) Everton 67pts
6) Aston Villa 62pts
7) Manchester City 62pts
8 ) Blackburn 59pts
9) Portsmouth 58pts
10) West Ham 55pts

Here’s how I think it will finish based on form and factoring in non-numerical elements:
4) Portsmouth
5) Everton
6) Manchester City
7) Liverpool (and yes Benitez is fired)
8 ) Aston Villa
9) Blackburn
10) West Ham

By Jeremy St Louise at Fox Soccer Channel

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